Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.
In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.
Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, explores the often-overlooked problem of noise in human judgment. Kahneman defines noise as "unwanted variability in judgments" and argues that it is a significant problem in many areas of life, including medicine, law, and business.
Kahneman provides numerous examples of noise in judgment, including the following:
- In a study of medical diagnoses, Kahneman found that the same patient could be diagnosed with different diseases by different doctors, even when they had the same information.
- In a study of legal decisions, Kahneman found that the same case could be decided differently by different judges, even when they were presented with the same evidence.
- In a study of business decisions, Kahneman found that the same investment could be evaluated differently by different analysts, even when they had the same information.
Kahneman argues that noise is a problem because it can lead to errors in judgment. For example, in the medical domain, noise can lead to misdiagnoses and inappropriate treatments. In the legal domain, noise can lead to unjust verdicts. In the business domain, noise can lead to poor investment decisions.
Kahneman also explores the causes of noise in judgment. He argues that noise is often caused by the following factors:
- Cognitive biases: These are systematic errors in thinking that can lead to biased judgments.
- Heuristics: These are mental shortcuts that can help us make judgments quickly, but they can also lead to errors.
- Emotional factors: These can also influence our judgments, sometimes leading to biased or inaccurate conclusions.
Kahneman concludes by discussing strategies for reducing noise in judgment. He argues that we can reduce noise by:
- Being aware of our cognitive biases and heuristics.
- Slowing down and thinking carefully about our judgments.
- Consulting with others to get different perspectives on a problem.
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment is a thought-provoking book that provides a new understanding of the problem of noise in judgment. Kahneman's insights can help us to make better judgments in all areas of our lives.
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