Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement
Imagine that two doctors in the same city gave different diagnoses to identical patients - or that two judges in the same courthouse give different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different food inspectors give different ratings to indistinguishable restaurants - or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to be handling the particular complaint. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same inspector, or the same company official makes different decisions, depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.
In 'NOISE', Daniel Kahneman, Cass R. Sunstein, and Olivier Sibony show how noise contributes significantly to errors in all fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, police behavior, food safety, bail, security checks at airports, strategy, and personnel selection. And although noise can be found wherever people make judgments and decisions, individuals and organizations alike are commonly oblivious to the role of chance in their judgments and in their actions.
Drawing on the latest findings in psychology and behavioral economics, and the same kind of diligent, insightful research that made 'Thinking, Fast and Slow' and 'Nudge' groundbreaking 'New York Times' best sellers, 'NOISE' explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment - and what we can to about it.
RUNNING TIME => 20hrs.
©2021 Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein (P)2021 Random House Audio
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Daniel Kahneman
In his groundbreaking book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman challenges the widely held belief that human judgment is objective and rational. Through a series of fascinating experiments, Kahneman demonstrates that our judgments are often clouded by noise – random errors that can lead to inaccurate conclusions and poor decisions.
Kahneman identifies two main types of noise:
- Internal noise: This is the random variation in our own judgments over time.
- External noise: This is the variation in judgments between different people.
Kahneman shows that both internal and external noise can have a significant impact on our decisions. For example, he found that judges who are asked to sentence criminals for the same crime can vary widely in their decisions, even when they have access to the same information. This is because each judge is influenced by their own unique biases and experiences.
Noise is not just a problem in the courtroom. It can also lead to errors in medical diagnoses, financial decisions, and even scientific research. Kahneman argues that we need to be more aware of noise and take steps to reduce its impact on our judgments.
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment is a thought-provoking and important book that challenges our assumptions about how we make decisions. It is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand the limits of human judgment and make better decisions.
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